Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

In my previous blogs, I have discussed the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns. In this blog, I want to explore how these changes in rainfall patterns will affect Africa’s agricultural sector and the economic and social consequences of changing agricultural yields and productivity.

A huge concern of climate change impacts in Africa especially is centred on food security. Food security is understood as the physical and economic access to safe and sufficient food to meet dietary needs (FAO, 2006) and climate change threatens to worsen food security conditions. Africa’s economy and people relies largely on agricultural products for their economy or sustenance and the prospects of climate change altering rainfall patterns poses a large threat to Africa’s agriculture because crop production relies hugely on rainfall to water their crops. Many large organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, the World Bank or the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), have all predicted that the prospects of Africa’s agricultural sector are bleak. For example, the FAO reports that rural development is expected to be hit hardest due to financial downturns and food crisis associated with loss in agricultural productivity. The FAO predicts that agricultural yields will reduce by up to 50%, and therefore, crop revenue will decline by as much as 90% by 2100 (FAO, 2009). The World Bank estimates that sensitive crops to high temperatures such as maize and wheat would be highly effected and thus crop yields will diminish. Furthermore, arable land would decrease by 40–80% (WorldBank, 2012). Similarly, IFPRI (2013) predicts that crops such as wheat will diminish in productivity, although increases in rainfall in certain areas are likely to experience slightly increased rain-fed maize and rice crops. Overall, these predictions share a common trend whereby crop productivity and yields are expected to decrease, and in conjunction with Africa’s population estimated to increase to 2 billion people within the next few decades (AfricaRenewal, 2014) will only worsen the food crisis and security in Africa. However, I should caution that the impacts of climate change on agriculture will vary across Africa just like how the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns also vary across the African continent.

These predictions from the FAO or the WB are continent wide predictions which ignores regional scale differences, although, IFPRI estimates that Southern Africa is expected to be one of the worst hit by climate change due to rising temperatures and declining rainfall levels (2013). Countries like Malawi for example are predicted to see declines in average yields in maize productivity by 7–14% by 2050 due to an overall decline in rainfall (Msowoya et al., 2016). Countries in Eastern Africa are experiencing the same decline in crop productivity but in a different manner aside from an overall decline in rainfall. Instead, the Manyoni district in Tanzania are experiencing lower crop productivity due to unpredictable rainfall whereby delays or earlier onsets of the rainy season leads to poor germination of seeds and thus total crop failure (Lema & Majule, 2009). Moreover, problems such as increases in the number of pests and diseases contributes to declining crop productivity.

The consequences of declining crop productivity affect the social and economic conditions of countries in Africa. In Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture accounts for up to 50% of GDP in most countries, however agricultural practices are small scale, has low inputs with limited use of fertilisers and high dependence on rainfall (Asafu-Adjaye, 2014).
Msowoya et al. (2016) study has identified a strong correlation between Malawi’s maize productivity and the national GDP. From 2000 and 2005, low rainfall levels reduced overall maize productivity and in 2005, maize production was 40% below the national average. This decline in productivity was followed by a large decrease in the national GDP production potential from maize. Given that Malawai’s food production is highly dependent on rainfall, and maize is a core crop in agriculture, the impacts of climate change has large ramifications on the socio-economic standing of Malawi. Lower productivity will inevitably increase the prices of crops and this can worsen conditions for poor groups of people who may no longer be able to afford to pay for crops. An overall decrease in crop productivity places stress of socio-economic development in areas that need it, and it also places stress in urban areas for alternative to agriculture employment opportunities.

Interestingly however, most agricultural output in Sub-Saharan Africa and the associated economic value is influenced not only by rainfall conditions, but technological and market conditions in Africa. The opportunities in agricultural output that fertilisers can provide are not seen due to the lack of using fertilisers because of its high prices (Asafu-Adjaye, 2014). Furthermore, farmers who does not have access to larger markets to sell their goods to, or the technology and means to store their goods effectively eliminates the potential of achieving high transaction costs due to the need to sell their products immediately. Rural markets are less likely to benefit from trading with larger markets due to segregation and isolation.

Concluding thoughts

The direct impacts of climate change such as the lack of rainfall as well as the temporally and spatially variable rainfall patterns has huge consequences on agricultural output, which is an overall declining trend across Africa. This can worsen economic and social conditions whereby the national economic output can decline; individual farmers have lower levels of income thus affecting social conditions such as the ability to pay for electricity or school and daily necessities. Moreover, lower agricultural output can result in the migration of people from rural farming lands to urban areas in search of other jobs, further complicate living conditions in these areas. There is no doubt that climate change has the potential to affect agriculture, but it is also important to recognise that human structures and policies can play a large part in an agricultural economy, and the vulnerability of small scale and large scale farmers.